Republicans are claiming to voters that they "don't know anything about projects 2025". Despite supporting all the policies individually. There's still plenty of room to argue the electorate was duped by their lies should they win

General consesus seems to be the early vote data looks good for dems overall. Some suggest that there maybe a slight increase in republicans switching from election day voting to early, but otherwise looks pretty good. Honestly would have expected more of that given that republicans theoretically made it a focus of their get out the vote to get people to vote earlier

Analyzing early voting data can be a little tricky because of you can only look at those indirect metrics. I mean even with party registration it doesn't tell you if republicans are choosing not to vote for trump which the republican oversampling polling suggests we might see more of compared to 2020

They don't release exit polling until after polls close on election day

There is not direct data on who they are voting for, only demographic data. For instance, you can see that currently around 55% of early voters in Georgia are women. In some states you can also look at party registration but that doesn't tell you everything (people often don't update it) and a large chunk are not registered, but that can get you a good idea

She defended trans people while on Fox in front of that republican audience. She shut down the line of anti-trans questioning fairly quickly

She reaffirmed her commitment to following the law, which requires that transgender inmates receive medically necessary care, which includes gender affirming care. When pressed further, she pushed back, comparing Trump's disproportionate spending on this issue to his lack of focus on the larger issues affecting the American people.

https://www.erininthemorning.com/p/kamala-harris-shuts-down-fox-news

The federal minimum wage has not increased from $7.25 per hour since 2009.

On the campaign trail, Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris has said that needs to change

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/16/federal-minimum-wage-has-been-7point25-for-15-years-how-that-may-change.html

Walz promptly responded by discussing possible actions that he and Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris could take.

He talked about antidiscrimination laws he wanted, judge appointment, helping education about LGBTQ related topics, etc

Mind you that Walz got a lot of policies through to help trans and queer people in Minnesota with a single seat majority

He also was a founding faculity advisor of a gay-straight alliance in the early 90s when it was very not socially acceptable at all. He supported same-sex marriage before it was legalized nationally when running in a deep red seat despite that not really netting him any political points there

It's not at all certain we lose the senate. There's actually a real chance we win. If we flip Texas senate (super close) or Florida senate (fairly close) or squeek by in Montana, we can keep the senate

Alternatively, we could also get a 49-50-1 senate if union-leader indepdent Dan Osborn flips Nebraska which polling suggests he is really got a chance to do. It's gone from a close race to a close race with osborn up slightly

Recently leaked republican GOP senate internals suggest republicans are much more worried about it than they are publicly letting on

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/13/senate-republican-poll-memo-00183570

You are writing to likely dems with Vote Forward. The political campaign ones are explicitly going to likely dems, the social campaign ones are going to underrepresented demographics - which typically lean towards dems. Their research has just found that writing partisan messages doesn't work as well for increasing voter turnout, so they say not to write parsian messages. Similar for how writing by hand works better

There are still text banks still open! Here's some with Field Team 6

https://www.mobilize.us/ft6/?show_all_events=true&tag_ids=22573

Setting aside the false equivalency here, the presidental race is not the only race on the ballot. We can help with those down ballot races too

There are plenty of viable dem candidates who do support all of what you just mentioned

For instance, Pennsylvania state legislature democrats are supporting a $20/hr minimum wage. There are races this year that could flip the PA state senate and let that start getting through

Or for corperate money side: Dan Osborn (indepdent, and there's no dem in the race) is a union leader who led the kellog strikes. He wants to get money out of politics and has taken zero corperate pac money. He's running for Nebraska's US senate seat and has a real chance to win. Polls put him neck and neck or even up slightly

Helpful links

Register to vote if you haven't. Deadlines are within days in the many states

Find opportunities to volunteer for dems around you and online

Write letters to voters in swing states or competitive downballot races

He'll be the person handed an executive order and told to sign. He doesn't need to follow all that many details. He already has said he wants to appoint a huge number of the people who just so happen to be involved in Project 2025. They'll be his inner circle voices

That's why the Heritage Foundation made a detailed plan for him with Project 2025. They're creating lists of people to remove, executive actions to do, and training people to put in

Even his first term he was able to do a lot of damage, but they have plans ready to remove all the guardrails

I see zero reason why this would make state laws about it unconstitutional. The constitution does not say it is mandatory for prison slave labor to exist, just that it could

The US constitution not prohibiting something doesn't mean a law or a state constitution can't

Keep in mind that the polls right now are also being flooded with right wing aligned groups

https://flood-watch.vercel.app/

They don't easily capture changes to turnout between election cycles is my point. They rely on assumptions of what turnout will look like to weight their polling

The best proxy is voter enthusiasm, but its not perfect

Polling doesn't capture turnout changes. This is the kind of thing that's largest effect, if materialized, would be boosting dem turnout

Which is also a ??? moment

1 million in just 3 days of early voting. And that's including today which is still ongoing

He is in an R+5 district in Pennsylvania (PA-10). Perry won by 7.6% in 2022. Going from lean-R to tossup is certainly something

We can make it matter by using it as a motivation for action

Find opportunities to volunteer for dems around you and online

[Write letters to voters in competitive downballot races (or swing states too)(https://votefwd.org/)