forecasting
comments.cftc.gov
[Direct link to the pdf](https://comments.cftc.gov/Handlers/PdfHandler.ashx?id=35566) maybe.
www.coindesk.com
There is a also [a tweet thread](https://twitter.com/shayne_coplan/status/1790404888347779503) by the PolyMarket CEO.
[archived](https://web.archive.org/web/20240415011339/https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/12/business/trump-biden-stock-market.html)
> With ~$2 Trillion in yearly volume, SIG is one of the largest market makers on the planet. They now have a dedicated trading division to trade prediction markets on Kalshi. This is the first time in prediction markets history that a prestigious Wall St institution commits to the asset class. > > The launch of SIG has the potential to transform prediction markets by making them similar to traditional markets — liquid and dynamic. You can now trade significant volumes, 100,000 shares at a time (up from 1,000) in Kalshi’s major markets.
fas.org
> In summary, expected utility forecasting presents a promising approach to improving the rigor of peer review and quantitatively defining the risk-reward profile of science proposals. Our pilot study suggests that this approach can be quite user-friendly for reviewers, despite its apparent complexity. Further study into how best to integrate forecasting into panel environments, define proposal milestones, and calibrate impact scales will help refine future implementations of this approach.
